Pick the break, team and price. BreakMetric shows the useful result first — hit chance, available EV and ROI readiness — with the technical evidence one tap away.
Analyze a break spot
Release → box → team → price. Player is optional.
1 · Choose release
Type to filter products by brand, competition or year.
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2 · Choose box
Select a product first.
Step 1 of 5 · Choose a release
Select a release to begin.
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BreakMetric Analysis
Hit probability—
Expected hits—
Expected valueWithheld
Spot price—
ROILocked
Break-evenWithheld
RiskPending
Data coveragePending
Results remain fail-closed until required evidence gates pass.
Highest-impact market verificationPrioritized by current EV contribution only; this does not alter EV.
Pending
Player
Indicative partial player EV—
Valued cards0
Observed serials0
Checklist entries0
Any modeled hit chance¹—
Base parallel hit chance—
Insert hit chance—
Auto hit chance—
Expected autos / case—
Expected inserts / case—
Expected base parallels / case—
Probability entry coverage—
Probability methodology & coverage
Player odds use official Hobby odds and equal-likelihood checklist assumptions where Topps does not publish card-level weighting. “Any modeled hit” combines base parallels, inserts and autographs. ¹The combined figure uses an independence approximation across modeled categories. Hit chance is not the same as profit chance or positive ROI. Entry coverage measures checklist entries connected to at least one published odds row; it does not mean every possible parallel has published odds. Probability-entry coverage and market-value coverage are separate: a player can have complete probability mapping while only a subset of cards has usable market valuations.