Know the odds.
Find the value.
BreakMetric compares sports card case-break spots using published odds, checklists, market values and expected value.
Spot value calculator
Choose a release, box type, team and player to inspect modeled hit probability. EV and ROI remain beta until market coverage and source verification are complete.
- ReleaseSelect product
- Box typeWaiting
- TeamWaiting
- PlayerOptional drill-down
- Spot priceWaiting
Type to filter products by brand, competition or year.
Load error detail
Technical data status
Analysis provenance
Shows the active calculation lineage: analysis unit, probability generator, source-input count, EV evidence status and ROI gate.
Market evidence
Data dates
Type to filter teams and players instantly.
EV coverage detail
Player
Player odds use official Hobby odds and equal-likelihood checklist assumptions where Topps does not publish card-level weighting. “Any modeled hit” combines base parallels, inserts and autographs. ¹The combined figure uses an independence approximation across modeled categories. Hit chance is not the same as profit chance or positive ROI. Entry coverage measures checklist entries connected to at least one published odds row; it does not mean every possible parallel has published odds. Probability-entry coverage and market-value coverage are separate: a player can have complete probability mapping while only a subset of cards has usable market valuations.
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BreakMetric v1.2.0 — probability analysis ready · EV/ROI beta.