BreakMetric compares sports card case-break spots using published odds,
checklists, market values and expected value.
EVExpected value per spot · beta
ROIValue relative to spot price
ProbabilityHit likelihood by team and player
Spot value calculator
Choose a release, box type, team and player to inspect modeled hit probability. EV and ROI remain beta until market coverage and source verification are complete.
ReleaseSelect product
Box typeWaiting
TeamWaiting
PlayerOptional drill-down
Spot priceWaiting
1 · Choose product / release
Type to filter products by brand, competition or year.
Highest-impact market verificationPrioritized by current EV contribution only; this does not alter EV.
Pending
Player
Indicative partial player EV—
Valued cards0
Observed serials0
Checklist entries0
Any modeled hit chance¹—
Base parallel hit chance—
Insert hit chance—
Auto hit chance—
Expected autos / case—
Expected inserts / case—
Expected base parallels / case—
Probability entry coverage—
Probability methodology & coverage
Player odds use official Hobby odds and equal-likelihood checklist assumptions where Topps does not publish card-level weighting. “Any modeled hit” combines base parallels, inserts and autographs. ¹The combined figure uses an independence approximation across modeled categories. Hit chance is not the same as profit chance or positive ROI. Entry coverage measures checklist entries connected to at least one published odds row; it does not mean every possible parallel has published odds. Probability-entry coverage and market-value coverage are separate: a player can have complete probability mapping while only a subset of cards has usable market valuations.